- 1 Democrats Main In A number of City Areas
- 2 The Cash Race
- 3 An Early Take a look at O’Rourke’s Watch Get together
- 4 Etcetera: Good Information For Cruz and Beto
- 5 CNN Jumps Forward of Texas Secretary of State
- 6 An Early Take a look at Cruz’s Watch Celebration
- 7 Harris County Delays Launch of Early Voting
- 8 Eight Million Voters Predicted
- 9 Etcetera: Polling Issues
- 10 Welcome to our Election Night time reside weblog
- 11 Doubtless voters
Democrats Main In A number of City Areas
7:35 p.m., R.G. Ratcliffe
The Dallas County Clerk is reporting straight ticket voting throughout early voting was 64 % Democratic to 35 % Republican. Within the early returns in Dallas, O’Rourke led 66 % to 33 %. Within the premier congressional race within the county, Democrat Collin Allred is main incumbent Republican Pete Periods 54 % to 44 % in District 32.
In Travis County, straight ticket in early voting went 73 % Democratic. O’Rourke was main with virtually 76 % of the vote.
Williamson County simply north of Austin reported 54 % of its early vote was straight ticket Republican. However for many who selected to vote by contest, O’Rourke led Cruz 51 % to 47 %. And Democratic army veteran Mary Jennings “MJ” Hegar was main incumbent Republican congressman John Carter 50 % to 48 %.
One shocker in historically Republican Williamson County is that Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is tied with Democratic challenger Mike Collier, and Democrat Justin Nelson is barely forward of Republican Lawyer Common Ken Paxton.
The Cash Race
7:32 p.m., Carlos Sanchez
CARLOS: One factor that’s sure already this election cycle is the document breaking fundraising by O’Rourke. How did you spend that cash?
RG: By way of a classy social media effort, Beto O’Rourke raised $70 million and spent $60 million by means of October 17. Some people tonight requested me if O’Rourke ever used a pollster, and the reply is No. He used some corporations to handle social media and radio and tv promoting buys, and little question they used some advertising methods, however Beto was unplugged on crafting his messages or chopping his tv commercials. Ted Cruz had a way more conventional marketing campaign. Cruz raised $29 million and spent $27 million.
An Early Take a look at O’Rourke’s Watch Get together
7:30 p.m., Robert Moore
Beto O’Rourke’s election night time get together is happening at Southwest College Park, house of El Paso’s Triple-A baseball El Paso Chihuahuas. Individuals have been lining up by 6 p.m. El Paso time. El Paso lawyer Omar Villa, 39, was among the many first individuals in line ready to enter Southwest College Park Tuesday night time for Beto O’Rourke’s election night time celebration. With him was his seven-year-old son, Leo.
“I wanted to bring my son to see what’s probably the biggest event that’s ever happened in El Paso. The focus of this election has been in this border region, primarily with Beto’s campaign,” Villa stated. “The tension on the border that’s perceived in the rest of the country doesn’t exist here. I think this is important as a resident of this community that people get a better perspective, a better view of what actually goes on on the border. That’s important to me because this is my hometown, this is where I choose to live, this is where I choose to raise my children.”
Etcetera: Good Information For Cruz and Beto
7:25 p.m., Jack Keyes
- “According to AP exit polling, 53 percent of the electorate considered themselves somewhat or very conservative, a good sign for Cruz holding onto his Senate seat,” Michael Dempsey, Houston Chronicle
- Texas born pop celebrity Beyonce endorsed Beto O’Rourke within the 11th hour.
CNN Jumps Forward of Texas Secretary of State
7:15 p.m., R.G. Ratcliffe
CNN is reporting returns forward of the Texas Secretary of State. With simply 13 % of the precincts reporting from the Dallas/Fort Value space, CNN reported O’Rourke as having 58.5 % of the vote, and Cruz, 40.9 %. The Secretary of State simply reported that with .10 % of the precincts reporting, Cruz is forward 82 % to 17 %. Media corporations use stringers to name in outcomes, whereas the state waits for returns to be reported from the counties. So that will not even be the identical set of votes being reported.
Photograph by Michael Hardy
An Early Take a look at Cruz’s Watch Celebration
7:05 p.m., Michael Hardy
Cruz supporters are lined up outdoors the ballroom of the Submit Oak Hilton, in Houston’s Galleria space, ready to get into what they hope might be a victory get together. Contained in the ballroom, the press space is overflowing with native, state, and nationwide reporters right here to see whether or not Congressman Beto O’Rourke can pull off one of many biggest upsets in Texas political historical past. Audio system on the Cruz watch celebration will embrace the senator’s father, Rafael Cruz; furnishings empresario Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale; and Houston radio speak present host Michael Berry, who will introduce Cruz. Splayed out on each desk within the ballroom are pocket copies of the Structure, every one with a canopy that includes Cruz’s 2016 presidential marketing campaign emblem and slogan. (“Courageous Conservatives—Reigniting the Promise of America.”)
Towards the entrance of the road to get into the ballroom was Joe Finley of Pearland, sporting a camouflage “Make America Great Again” hat and a “TrusTED” button. Finley, who stated he got here out to observe the returns with “likeminded people,” stated he “totally supports” Cruz and predicted the senator would trounce O’Rourke. “It’s going to be substantial,” he stated of the anticipated margin of victory. “The media makes you think it’s closer than it is. And social media makes it worse.” About Cruz and Trump’s feud in the course of the 2016 Republican main, Finley stated that was simply politics. “That’s part of the game they have to play. And Trump won. He beat all the Republican, he beat Hillary, and he beat the media.”
Harris County Delays Launch of Early Voting
6;45 p.m., R.G. Ratcliffe
Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart tweeted that the District Courtroom ruling will delay launch of early voting and absentee ballots.
MEDIA ALERT: Prolonged Voting Hours at 9 Election Day Polls pic.twitter.com/U9NTYvYk1Q
— Harris County Clerk (@HarrisVotes) November 7, 2018
Some polling locations within the county didn’t open on time this morning, so they’re staying open till eight p.m. stated Texas Secretary of State spokesman Sam Taylor. He verified that there can be no returns launched from Harris County till after eight p.m.
Eight Million Voters Predicted
6:30, Carlos Sanchez
CARLOS: Republican political analyst Derek Ryan is rising because the early voting guru for Texas elections. After this yr’s turnout, he’s predicting vote totals (early voting and Election Day) will hit eight million voters. What’s the importance of this quantity, R.G?
R.G.: Greater than something, this is a sign of how a lot this has turn out to be a nationwide election. Within the 2014 midterm election, there have been Four.7 million votes forged, rather less than 34 % of the registered voters. In 2016, the turnout was eight.9 million voters, 59 % of the registered voters. As a lot as this can be a contest between Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and his Democratic challenger—Congressman Beto O’Rourke—this is also a Texas referendum on the efficiency of President Trump.
Etcetera: Polling Issues
6:15, Kayleigh Hanna
- Decide Ordered Harris County Polling place to remain open one hour to make up for late open this morning.
- Ballot employee in Harris County cited for misdemeanor assault after bumping a voter and making racially charged feedback.
- Paper poll scarcity happens in Arlington after polling machines started appearing up.
Welcome to our Election Night time reside weblog
6 p.m., Carlos Sanchez
CARLOS SANCHEZ: The polls will shut at 7 p.m. in a lot of Texas, however the drama will simply start. That is Carlos Sanchez, political editor of Texas Month-to-month. Tonight, I’ll be joined by Texas Month-to-month senior editor R.G. Ratcliffe for a stay weblog dialogue of the 2018 elections. We’ll be checking in all through the night time with Robert Moore, an El Paso–based mostly journalist who’s with the Beto O’Rourke marketing campaign this night, and Texas Month-to-month writer-at-large Michael Hardy, who’s with the Ted Cruz marketing campaign.
Along with monitoring one of many nation’s highest-profile elections, we’ll be following a number of different statewide races, together with that of governor. Each certainly one of Texas’s 36 congressional districts and 150 seats within the Texas Home have been additionally on the poll.
Briefly, the implications for as we speak’s elections are big.
Maybe the most important story rising because the polls shut is that this yr’s voter turnout.
Nicely-regarded voter analyst Derek Ryan is predicting that a complete of eight million Texans may have voted this yr—each at the moment and within the early voting interval. That equates to 52 % of the state’s registered voters and is a document turnout for any midterm election within the state.
As numbers are available over the subsequent few hours, keep in mind that the polls aren’t closed all through the state. The remaining massive metropolis in Texas the place the polls are open is El Paso, which is within the Mountain Time Zone and an hour behind a lot of the remainder of Texas. El Paso can also be O’Rourke’s hometown, and El Paso County carries the excellence of getting the most important midterm-over-midterm improve in voters in all the state. The early vote turnout between this yr and 2014, the final midterm election, is simply over 262 %. The subsequent highest county is Comal, north of San Antonio, which noticed a 180 % improve in its early voting numbers over 2014.
What meaning, we’ll talk about tonight. However first I needed to share some analysis R.G. Ratcliffe has been tied up with.
R.G. RATCLIFFE: To create an estimate of the election end result between Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and Democrat Beto O’Rourke, I did the next:
I in contrast early vote turnout reviews from the nationwide Democratic agency Goal Sensible and from the Texas Republican knowledge agency Ryan Knowledge & Analysis to develop an image of early turnout by voting age.
Sure, the turnout amongst 18-to-29-year-olds was up 462 % from 2014, and voting by 30-to-39-year-olds was up by 295 %. These are nice figures for individuals who will turn into everlasting voters sooner or later, however they have been so outmatched by older voters in 2014 that it made solely a small dent within the general citizens. As an example, elevated voting by individuals age 65 and older solely went up 90 %, however that totaled 1.7 million voters towards 1.Four million voters underneath the age of 40.
The Goal Sensible age breakdown for early voting went like this:
As a result of this election utterly blew away the 2014 midterm, I made a decision to start out evaluating the turnout to the 2016 presidential election. Fewer Texas voters will end up this yr, however the general quantity possible shall be shut. So I seemed on the exit polls from 2016 by age.
18-24: Clinton 58 %; Trump 32 %
25-29: Clinton 51 %; Trump 41 %
30-39: Clinton 46 %; Trump 46 %
40-49: Clinton 41 %; Trump 54 %
50-64: Clinton 39 %; Trump 59 %
Age 65+: Clinton 35 %; Trump 64 %
Statewide, Trump gained the election 52 % to Clinton’s 43 % of the vote. Their percentages stayed fairly near the identical between the early vote and Election Day balloting. Clinton gained a million votes on Election Day, and Trump picked up 1.2 million.
The large achieve on Election Day was Libertarian Gary Johnson. He solely gained about 100,000, however his proportion of the entire vote went up from 2.76 % to three.16 %. My suspicion has been that Republicans who didn’t need to vote for Trump however couldn’t deliver themselves to vote for Clinton discovered Johnson to be a protected harbor of protest.
This yr, if the race between Cruz and O’Rourke is shut, a Three-Four proportion level vote for Neal Dikeman might grow to be a spoiler for Cruz and the profitable edge for O’Rourke.
Going again to the early vote age breakdown, I in contrast that to the newest polling carried out by Quinnipiac College, which discovered Cruz main O’Rourke 51 % to 46 %. I selected this ballot as a result of it was probably the most just lately carried out that contained an age breakdown. The pollsters shared with me the age breakdown of their survey.
If the election for United States Senator have been being held in the present day, and the candidates have been Beto O’Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of at present, do you lean extra towards Beto O’Rourke the Democrat or extra towards Ted Cruz the Republican?
As a result of the Quinnipiac survey age breakdown didn’t precisely match the Goal Sensible breakdown of voters, I needed to therapeutic massage the numbers a bit by intestine really feel. And since the survey didn’t ask concerning the Libertarian, Dikeman’s share of the vote will have an effect on the ultimate percentages for Cruz and O’Rourke. Right here’s my prediction for the election, simply between Cruz and O’Rourke if eight.1 million Texans vote:
Ted Cruz: Four.Three million votes—55 %
Beto O’Rourke: Three.6 million votes–45 %
Within the presidential election, it seems like most of Johnson’s vote got here out of Trump’s. So if Dikeman attracts Four % of the vote:
Cruz: 51 %
O’Rourke: 45 %
Dikeman: Four %
If O’Rourke receives 45 % of the vote, his marketing campaign could have been probably the most profitable and had the most effective outcome for a Democratic non-judicial candidate since 1998, when John Sharp acquired 48 % of the vote for lieutenant governor and Paul Interest [editor’s note: Paul Hobby is the chairman and CEO of Texas Monthly] captured 49 % of the vote for state comptroller. Texas Supreme Courtroom candidate Margaret Mirabal acquired 46 % of the vote in 2002.